Archive for NAHB
Homebuilder Confidence Moves To 5-Year High
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Homebuilder Confidence is on the rise once again.
After a brief dip in April, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that the Housing Market Index rose 5 points in May to 29. The increase marks the sharpest climb in homebuilder confidence on a month-to-month basis in 10 years, and raises the index to a 5-year high.
The Housing Market Index is scored from 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions in the single-family new home market overall. Readings below 50 indicate poor conditions.
The HMI has not been above 50 since April 2006.
The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading as opposed to a straight-up homebuilder survey. The published HMI figure is a compilation of the results of three specific questionnaires sent to NAHB members monthly.
The survey questions are basic :
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
This month, builders are reporting strong improvement across all three surveyed areas. Current home sales are up 5 points; sales expectations for the next six months are up 3 points; and buyer foot traffic is up 5 points to its highest point since 2007.
With mortgage rates low and home prices suppressed, the market for new homes is gaining momentum, a conclusion supported by the New Home Sales report which shows rising sales volume and a shrinking new home inventory nationwide.
The basics of supply-and-demand portend higher new home prices later this year — a potentially bad development for buyers of new homes in Texas and nationwide. With demand for new homes rising, builders may be less likely to make sale price concessions or to offer “upgrade packages” to buyers of new homes.
If you’re shopping for new construction in or around San Antonio , therefore, consider moving up your time frame. Home affordability is high today. It may not be tomorrow.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.8-Fold Increase In “Improving Markets” Since September
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The economic recovery continues nationwide, but the recovery’s an uneven one.
Some metropolitan areas are faring very well this year, posting measurable gains in both employment and housing. Other metropolitan areas, by contrast, are struggling.
To help identify those markets in which growth is occurring, the National Association of Homebuilders created the Improving Market Index, a metric analyzing three separate, independently-collected data series “indicative of improving economic health”.
The IMI’s three collected data series are :
- Employment Growth (as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Home Price Growth (as published by Freddie Mac)
- Single-Family Housing Growth (as published by the Census Bureau)
A metropolitan area is considered to be “improving” if all three indicators show growth at least six months after the respective area’s most recent trough, or “bottoming out”.
In May, there are exactly 100 U.S. markets that qualify for the NAHB’s Improving Market Index, down from 101 last month but higher by more than 800% from the reading in September 2011, the index’s inaugural release.
17 areas were added to the Improving Market Index list this month including Phoenix, Arizona; Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Bend, Oregon. 18 areas were removed from the May IMI.
83 metropolitan areas remained from April.
There is little actionable information in the Improving Markets Index but the report does a good job of highlighting how “real estate markets” can’t be summarized on a national level and remain relevant to everyday home buyers and sellers across Texas and nationwide. For example, Fort Collins, Colorado is listed as an Improving Market. However, Greeley, Colorado — located just 30 miles away — was just downgraded from the same list.
Home values and economies vary by region, by state, by city, by neighborhood, and even by street.
The complete Improving Markets Index can be viewed at the NAHB website but for the best read of what’s happening in your neighborhood, talk to a local real estate agent.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Homebuilder Confidence Slips 3 Points In April
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For the first time in 3 months, homebuilder confidence has slipped.
As measured by the National Association of Homebuilders, the Housing Market Index dropped three notches in April to a reading of 25. The report measures homebuilder confidence in the newly-built, single-family housing market.
When the Housing Market Index reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable market conditions. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.
According to the scale, not since April 2006 have housing market conditions have been deemed “favorable” but, recently, homebuilder confidence has picked up. Between September 2011 and March 2012, confidence doubled.
April’s reading remains that second-highest since 2007.
So what does “builder confidence” mean? The formula is a little bit tricky.
The Housing Market Index is actually a composite figure. It’s the combined result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders monthly. The surveys ask about current single-family sales volume; projected single-family sales volume over the next 6 months; and current home buyer “foot traffic”.
The NAHB compiles the results into the Housing Market Index.
In April, builder responses worsened on all 3 questions :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 26 (-3 from March 2012)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 32 (-3 from March 2012)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 18 (-4 from March 2012)
At first glance, the data reveals a weakening market for newly-built homes and this may be true; we won’t know for another few months whether April’s confidence setback is an historical blip or the start of a trend. The change in builder psyche, though, is a change that today’s new home buyers in San Antonio can exploit.
Two months ago, builders expected 2012 to be a banner year for home sales. Today, they’re not so sure.
Buyers of new construction, therefore, may find it easier to negotiate with builders for price reductions, “free upgrades”, and/or other concessions. Plus, with mortgage rates still resting near historical lows, financing a newly-built home is cheaper than at any time in recorded history.
The Spring Buying Season is underway. For buyers of new construction, there are deals to be found.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Buyer Foot Traffic Through New Construction Up Nearly Threefold Since 2009
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Home builder confidence in the newly-built, single-family housing market remains high.
In March, for the second consecutive month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports the Housing Market Index at 28 — a doubling of the reading from just 6 months ago and, along with last month, the highest HMI value since June 2007.
When home builder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable builder conditions in the single-family, new home market. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable builder conditions.
The HMI itself is a composite reading. It’s the result of three separate surveys sent to home builders by the trade association. The NAHB asks builders to report on their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and, their current buyer “foot traffic”.
Approximately 400 surveys are returned each month. The results are compiled into the NAHB Housing Market Index.
In March, home builders provided mixed replies to the survey questions :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 29 (-1 from February)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 36 (+2 from February)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 22 (Unchanged from February)
It’s noteworthy, despite slowing sales in March, that home builders expect a surge in new home sales over the next 6 months. The reasons for this are several and should be of interest to today’s home buyers.
First, the jobs market is heating up. The U.S. economy has added more than 1 net new million jobs over the last 6 months and that is increasing the pool of potential home buyers in Texas and nationwide.
Second, the housing market, in general, is improving. Home sales are brisk in many U.S. markets and home supplies are dropping. This creates pressure on home prices to rise.
And, third, low mortgage rates have helped pushed home affordability to all-time highs. More home buyers earning the national median income can afford a median-priced home than at any time in history.
It’s all culminated in a monthly Buyer Foot Traffic reading which, at 22, is nearly triple the foot traffic reading from just three years ago. Home buyers — in San Antonio and everywhere else — are out in full-force, capitalizing on today’s buyer-friendly market.
If you’re looking to buy new construction in the second half of 2012, consider moving up your time frame. Market conditions are constantly changing, and may move out of your favor. As builder optimism increases, the price you pay for your new home may increase, too.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Affordability Reaches An All-Time High
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Home affordability moved higher last quarter, boosted by the lowest mortgage rates in history, a rise in median income, and slow-to-recover home prices throughout Texas and the country.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, the quarterly Home Opportunity Index read 75.9 in 2011′s fourth quarter. More than 3 in 4 homes sold between October-December 2011, in other words, were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.
Never in recorded history have U.S. homes been as affordable on a national level. Even on a regional and local level, affordability soared.
Affordability was highest in the Midwest; 7 of the 10 most affordable markets nationwide were in the nation’s heartland.
The Top 5 most affordable U.S. cities in Q4 2011 were:
- Kokomo, IN (99.2% home affordability)
- Fairbanks, AK (97.5% home affordability)
- Cumberland, WV (96.9% home affordability)
- Lima, OH (96.0% home affordability)
- Rockford, IL (95.5% home affordability)
These are each considered “small markets”. The most affordable “major market” was the Youngstown, Ohio area, where 95.1% of homes sold were affordable to households earning the area’s local median income.
Not surprisingly, America’s “least affordable cities” were regionally-concentrated, too, with 7 of the 10 least affordable markets located in either California or Texas.
San Francisco (#3), Santa Ana (#4), and Los Angeles (#5) led for the Golden State but, for the 15th consecutive quarter, the New York metropolitan area took “Least Affordable Market” honors.
Just 29 percent of homes in and around New York City were affordable to households earning the area’s median income last quarter. It’s a large jump from the quarter prior during which 23 percent of homes were affordable.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Homebuilder Confidence Returns To Pre-Recession Levels
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New construction buyers in San Antonio , look out. The nation’s home builders are predicting a strong 2012 for new home sales. It may mean higher home prices as the spring buying season approaches.
For the sixth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that homebuilder confidence is on the rise. The Housing Market Index climbed four points to 29 in February, the index’s highest reading since May 2007.
The Housing Market Index is now up 8 points in 8 weeks. The last time that happened was June 2003, a month during which the U.S. economy was regaining its footing, much like this month. It’s noteworthy that June 2003 marked the start of a 4-year bull run in the stock market that took equities up 54%.
The NAHB’s Housing Market Index itself is actually a composite reading. It’s the end-result of three separate surveys sent to home builders monthly.
The association’s questions are basic :
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
In February, builders reported marked improvement across all three areas. Builders report that current home sales climbed 5 points; that sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 5 points; and that buyer foot traffic climbed 1 point.
Most notable of all of the statistics, though, is that the nation’s home builders report that there are now twice as many buyers setting foot inside model units as compared to just 6 months ago.
This data is supported by the monthly New Home Sales report which shows rising sales and a shrinking new home inventory.
Because of this, today’s new home buyers throughout Texas should expect fewer concessions from builders at the time of contract including fewer price breaks on a home and fewer free upgrades. Builders are optimistic for the future and, therefore, may be less willing to “make a deal”.
This spring may mark the best time of year to buy a new home. 60 days forward, it may be too late.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Builders See More Sales, Higher Prices Ahead
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Homebuilder confidence is soaring.
For the fourth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports an increase in its Housing Market Index. The index climbed 4 points to 25 this month – its second four-point gain since October.
With home sales activity increasing across all four regions, the monthly HMI has now nearly doubled in value since June 2011.
The HMI is now at a 55-month high.
The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading; the result of three home builder surveys sent by the National Association of Homebuilders to its members monthly. Home builders report back on current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and current buyer “foot traffic”.
The NAHB then results compiles the surveys into a single reading.
In January, home builders reported improving sales conditions across all three categories :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 25 (+3 from December)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 29 (+3 from December)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 21 (+3 from December)
The Housing Market Index corroborates recent U.S. government data that suggests housing is mending in Texas. Both Housing Starts and New Home Sales have out-performed expectations of late, it’s been shown, and the stock of new homes for sale nationwide is dwindling.
All of this, of course, is happening as demand from buyers heats up. Foot traffic through builder homes is higher than it’s been in more than 3 years, say the builders — a time period that includes the duration of the 2010 home buyer tax credit.
It’s no surprise, therefore, that builders expect a strong 2012.
Jobs data is improving, mortgage rates remain low, and housing momentum is building. For home buyers in San Antonio , however, it may spell higher home prices ahead. Big demand and small supply creates scarcity and scarcity correlates to rising prices.
If you’re shopping new homes, the best “deal” may be the one you find today.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Builders Experiencing Heavy Foot Traffic And Higher Sales Volume
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In another good sign for the housing market, today’s home builders believe that the housing market has turned a corner.
For the third straight month, the Housing Market Index — a home builder confidence survey from the National Association of Homebuilders — reported strong monthly gains.
December’s Housing Market Index climbed 2 points to 21 in December after a downward revision to last month’s results. The index is now up seven points since September 2011, and sits at a 19-month high.
When home builder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions in the single-family new home market. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.
The Housing Market Index has not crossed 50 since April 2006.
The HMI itself is actually a composite reading; the result of three related home builder surveys. The National Association of Homebuilders asks its members about their current single-family home sales volume; their projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and their current buyer “foot traffic”.
The results are compiled into the single Housing Market Index tally.
In December, builder survey responses showed strength across all 3 questions :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 22 (+2 from November)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 26 (+1 from November)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 18 (+3 from November)
These results support the recent New Home Sales and Housing Starts data, both of which show an increase in single-family sales, and a decrease in new home housing supply.
When demand rises and supplies fall, home prices climb.
It’s also noteworthy that the Housing Market Index put buyer foot traffic at newly-built homes at its highest level since May 2008. With even more buyers expected to enter the market, new home prices are expected to rise across San Antonio in 2012 — especially in the face of shrinking home supplies.
For now, though, with home prices stable and mortgage rates low, buyers can grab “a deal”. 60 days forward, though, may be too late.
The Spring Buying Season unofficially starts February 6, 2012.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Homebuilders Getting Optimistic; Higher Home Prices Ahead?
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Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.
Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It’s the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.
The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It’s meant to measure confidence among the nation’s homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.
When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.
The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.
As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”.
In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :
- Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)
And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month’s Housing Market Index.
In November, “Current Single Family Sales” climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 — the month after last year’s home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.
That’s an important point for San Antonio home buyers.
With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.
For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout Texas , and helps new home construction remain affordable.
If you’re in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get “a deal”.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Homebuilder Confidence Stays Flat
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Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.
With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index’s 12-month average.
The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It’s the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder’s business.
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September’s composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.
The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006.
With homebuilder confidence low — and stagnant — buyers of new homes San Antonio in should remain alert for “deals”. Builders are more likely to offer free upgrades and other concessions to incoming buyers. The availability of such deals may increase as the seasons change and as the year comes to a close.
Low mortgage rates are making new homes attractive, too. Last week, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell to their lowest levels of all-time. As compared to just 8 weeks ago, 30-year fixed rate mortgage payments are lower by 5 percent at all loan sizes, down $27 per month per $100,000 borrowed.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.
