Archive for Jobs
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 14, 2012
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Mortgage markets worsened slightly last week as positive U.S. economic news overshadowed growing concerns for the Eurozone’s future. Political and economic issues continue to weigh on Greece and Spain, and it’s still unknown how France’s new President will change that nation’s fiscal direction.
Conforming mortgage rates in Texas edged higher on the week overall.
Last week was light on economic data, but the figures released suggest an improving U.S. economy.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 3.7 million job openings nationwide this past March, marking the highest amount since July 2008. Voluntary separations (i.e. “quit jobs”) increased, too — also at levels not seen since 2008.
Voluntary separations may hint at labor market improvement because employees rarely leave a steady-paying job without the prospect of a new job ahead. Furthermore, the four-week moving average of first-time unemployment claims fell for the first time in a month.
The jobs market is one of two key sectors expected to lead the economy forward this year.
The other is housing and, this week, there will be two key housing reports for Wall Street to review. The first is Tuesday’s homebuilder confidence survey from the National Association of Homebuilders. The second is Wednesday’s Housing Starts data for April.
Mortgage rates may also be affected by the Tuesday release of the Retail Sales report and Consumer Price Index report; and, by the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday release of the FOMC Minutes from its last meeting.
For home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers, mortgage rates remain at all-time lows. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate nationwide is 3.83% for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points and a full set of closing costs — the lowest rate-and-fee combination in Freddie Mac’s recorded history.
However, low mortgage rates may not last much longer — especially if the Eurozone can reverse course on its ailing economies.
Mortgage rates remain volatile and sensitive to changes in market conditions. If today’s mortgage rates fit your budget, consider locking in.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Homes Get More Affordable On March Jobs Data
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Americans continue to get back to work.
Last Friday, in its Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 120,000 net new jobs created, plus combined revisions in the January and February reports of +4,000 jobs.
The March report marks the 18th straight month of job growth nationwide — the first time that’s happened in 5 years.
The Unemployment Rate dipped in March, too, falling one-tenth of one percent to 8.2%. This is its lowest national Unemployment Rate since February 2009.
Clearly, the jobs market is moving in the right direction. Yet, after the Non-Farm Payrolls report was released Friday morning, stock markets dropped and bond markets gained — the opposite of what a casual market observer would expect.
It happened because, although job growth was strong, Wall Street decided it just wasn’t strong enough. The market expected 200,000 jobs created in March at least and the actual reported figure fell short.
Lucky for you, Wall Street’s pain is Main Street’s gain. After the jobs report was released, mortgage rates immediately dropped to a 3-week low, making homes more affordable in Texas and throughout all 50 states.
The market’s reaction is an excellent example of how important jobs data can be to home affordability — especially in a recovering economy.
The economy shed 7 million jobs between 2008-2009 and has since added more than half of them back. Wall Street pays close attention to job creation because more working Americans means more consumer spending, and more consumer spending means more economic growth.
Rate shoppers caught a bit of a break on the March payroll data. By all accounts, the labor market recovery in underway and, as it improves, higher mortgage rates are likely nationwide. For now, though, there’s a window for low mortgage rates that buyers and would-be refinancing households can try to exploit.
If you’re actively shopping for a home or a mortgage, today’s mortgage rates may be at “last chance”-like levels. Once rates rise, they’re expected to rise for good.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Fewer Jobless Claims Suggests Higher Home Prices Ahead
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Economists believe the strength of the 2012 housing market will be closely tied to jobs. If they’re right, the housing market is ripe for a boost. It spells good news for San Antonio home sellers and may mean the end of bargain-basement prices for buyers.
Since peaking in mid-2009, the number of U.S. workers filing for first-time unemployment benefits has dropped 44 percent. Over the same period of time, the U.S. economy has added more than 2 million jobs and the national Unemployment Rate is down more than 1 percentage point to 8.3%.
Employment’s link to the housing market is both economic and psychological.
To make the economic link is straight-forward. A person with a job earns verifiable income and such income is required in order to be mortgage-eligible. For conventional and FHA purchase loans, for example, mortgage lenders want a home buyer’s monthly income be more than double his monthly debts.
For the formerly unemployed that have since returned to work, having a full-time income makes buying homes possible. It also supports higher home valuations nationwide because home prices are based on supply-and-demand. All things equal, when the number of buyers in a market goes up, prices do, too.
The psychological connection between housing and employment is a tad more complicated, but every bit as important. It’s not just out-of-work Americans that don’t look for homes — it’s fearful Americans, too. People with concerns about losing a job are just as unlikely to shop for homes as people actually without a job. The same is true for people unsure of their prospects for a better-paying job, or their own upward mobility.
A recovering job market can lessen those fears and draw out buyers — especially those who face a loss on the sale of an “underwater” home.
The Initial Jobless Claims rolling 4-week average is at its lowest level since 2008. Fewer Americans are losing jobs, and more are finding permanent placement.
It’s one more reason to be optimistic for this year’s housing market.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Are You Locked ? Friday’s Job Report Will Make Mortgage Rates Move.
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If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or have yet to lock one in, today may be a good day to call your loan officer. Friday morning, the government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report is more commonly called the “jobs report“ and, lately, it’s been Wall Street’s domestic economic metric of choice. As jobs go, so go markets.
In the 12 months beginning November 2007, the economy shed 2.3 million on its way to losing more than 7 million jobs by the end of 2009.
It’s no coincidence that the stock market has been wayward. Jobs are a keystone in the U.S. economy and the connection between jobs and growth is straight-forward :
- Workers spend more than non-workers and consumer spending is the economy’s largest single component
- Workers pay more taxes to governments and, when governments have money, they build and spend on projects
- Additional consumer and government spending creates revenue for businesses which, in turn, hire more workers.
It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. More employees begets more employees.
As a rate shopper in Texas , this is an important understanding. Job loss was, in part, behind the big drop in mortgage rates since 2007. A weak economy drives investors away from equities and into safer securities such as mortgage bonds (which are backed by the U.S. government).
The excess demand causes mortgage rates to drop and that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Since late-2007, mortgage rates have been in decline.
In the first 11 months of 2011, though, 1.5 million people went back to work; the economy showed signs of shoring up and economic optimism is returning. Mortgage markets have temporarily ceded to the Eurozone, but with one more strong jobs report to close out the year, momentum could tip and stock markets could roll.
If that happens, mortgage rates will rise. Maybe by a lot.
This is why Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data is so important. Economists expect that 150,000 new jobs were created in December. If the government’s actual number is larger than that, prepare for higher mortgage rates.
Conversely, if job creation falls short of 150,000, mortgage rates may fall.
If the prospect of rising mortgage rates makes you nervous, remove your nerves from the equation. Call your loan officer and lock your rate ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 7, 2011
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Mortgage markets improved last week as optimism for a Greek Bailout program faded, triggering a global flight-to-quality assets. Fear of a Eurozone rift outweighed positive economic remarks from the Federal Open Market Committee and an in-line U.S. jobs report.
Although the Federal Reserve said the economy had “strengthened somewhat“, a statement backed up by Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data which — with revisions — met analyst expectations, concern that Greece may not receive its aid caused mortgage to fall.
Conforming mortgage rates dropped throughout Texas Monday and Tuesday, pushing rates to near their lowest levels of the year. Rates remained low through Friday.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage market survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 4.00% nationwide, plus closing costs and an accompanying 0.7 discount points.
A “discount point” is a one-time loan fee paid at closing, where 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.
As an example, 1 discount point on a $300,000 home loan costs $3,000.
This week, with no new economic due for release, the fate of mortgage rates in San Antonio again depends on what develops in Europe. If Greece cannot reach accord within its own parliament, and cannot enact the austerity measures as dictated by its aid package, mortgage rates should fall this week, too.
However, if Greece can reach agreement and move forward, it will appease investors worldwide and U.S. mortgage rates should resume rising. Likely by a lot.
Remember : The U.S. economy has shown slow, steady improvement of late and, normally, this would result in higher mortgage rates for consumers. That’s not what we’ve experienced, however. Instead, fears of a Greek debt default have dominated headlines.
As soon as markets are certain that Greece has a way forward, attention will return to the U.S. economy, and mortgage rates are expected to rise.
Therefore, float your mortgage rate with caution this week. Depending on global events, mortgage rates may rise or fall. Eliminate your interest rate risk. Lock your rate today.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 24, 2011
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Mortgage markets improved last week on worries that Eurozone leaders would decline to send aid to Greece. These concerns overshadowed optimism for the U.S. economy, the result of several strong data points.
Conforming rates across Texas eased, giving homeowners and rate shoppers yet another chance to nab historically-low mortgage rates. FHA mortgage rates remained low, too.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is now 4.11% with 0.8 discount points. For loans with zero points, expect to pay slightly higher rates.
Rate-shoppers and home buyers would do well to pay attention.
This week’s may be as good as mortgage rates get. Possibly forever. This is because the market conditions that helped rates stay low — a weak U.S. economy and uncertainty in Europe — are eroding.
The U.S. economy has posted strong jobs, spending, and confidence figures in the past 3 weeks and Eurozone leaders appear closing making a deal that will help Greece avoid a sovereign debt default.
Once markets no longer worry about these two events, rates are expected to surge.
Eurozone leads met all weekend and have chosen Wednesday, October 26, as a likely “decision date” for Greece. If that date holds, and if an agreement can be reached, U.S. mortgage bonds will sell-off and mortgage rates will rise.
The housing sector is set to release important news this week, too.
After last month’s increase in Housing Starts and steady Existing Home Sales report, Wall Street will watch for this week’s New Home Sales, Case-Shiller Index and Pending Home Sales Index. If momentum stays strong for housing, that, too, should pressure mortgage rates higher.
Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows. If you’ve yet to lock your mortgage rate, or are still shopping, consider that rates have more room to rise than to fall. The “safe play” is to execute a lock today.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 12, 2011
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Mortgage markets improved last week as a weakening Eurozone and questions about the U.S. economy sparked a global flight-to-quality. Conforming and FHA mortgage rates improved for the second week in a row.
The storylines should sound familiar by now. They are the same ones that have dictated the path of mortgage rates since April 2011. As a result, according to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates across Texas and nationwide are now at an all-time low.
Not in 50 years of tracking mortgage rates has pricing been so favorable.
Last week’s holiday-shortened week didn’t begin well for rate shoppers in San Antonio. Rates moved higher on the expectation of additional economic stimulus from two separate parts of the government — the Federal Reserve and Congress.
Wall Street held high hopes for Ben Bernanke’s address to the Economic Club of Minnesota, and for the President’s address to a joint session of Congress. It expected Fed Chief Bernanke to reveal clues about the Fed’s next move; and it expected the President to unleash a massive jobs creation program that would put more Americans to work.
Both outcomes would have harmed mortgage rates as money flowed into stocks. However, neither happened. Bernanke kept mum on the Federal Reserve’s options and the White House announced a jobs program smaller in scope than was expected.
Mortgage rates fell throughout the day Thursday then received a big boost Friday.
Amid rumors of a pending Greek default and the potential credit downgrades of several Eurozone banking groups, safe haven buying picked up and drove mortgage rates down.
Markets open this week with rates lower than they’ve ever been in history.
There isn’t much new data set for release this week so market expectations will continue to set the direction in which mortgage rates go. If concerns for a Eurozone default rise, mortgage rates should fall. Conversely, if Eurozone chatter settles, mortgage rates should rise.
For now, mortgage rates remain at all-time lows and should not be taken for granted. If you see a rate that makes sense for you, consider locking it in.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Strong Job Growth In July Trumped By Credit Downgrade
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More Americans are getting back to work.
The latest Non-Farm Payrolls survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 117,000 net new jobs were created in July, thumping analyst estimates and surprising Wall Street investors.
In addition, May and June’s originally-reported figures were both revised higher:
- May 2011 was revised higher by 28,000 jobs
- June 2011 was revised higher by 28,000 jobs
The national Unemployment Rate slipped to 9.1 percent.
The jobs report’s strong readings would typically be a boon to stock market and a threat to mortgage rates. This is because more employed Americans means more disposable income spent on products and services; and more taxes paid to governments at the federal, state and local level.
This combination fuels consumer spending and supports new job growth, a self-reinforcing cycle that spurs economic growth and often to draw investors into equities.
This month, however, the market reaction has been decidedly different.
Since the Friday release of the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost close to 6 percent of its value. Furthermore, mortgage bonds — which typically sink on a strong jobs figure — have thrived.
High demand for mortgage-backed bonds have pushed mortgage rates below their all-time lows set last November; the biggest cause of which is Standard & Poor’s credit downgrade of U.S. government-issued debt.
Ironically, the credit rating downgrade sparked a surge of safe haven bidding that has been tremendous to rate shoppers and home buyers in San Antonio and nationwide. Bond buyers are flocking to the U.S.
If you’ve been shopping for a mortgage, therefore, or recently bought a home, use this week’s action to your advantage. Call your lender and ask about rates. You may be surprised at what you find.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.A Mortgage Rate Strategy For July’s Jobs Report
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At 8:30 AM ET Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July 2011 Non-Farm Payrolls report. Mark it in your calendar. If you’ve been watching mortgage rates fall to new all-time lows this week and fear a mortgage rate reversal, Friday could be the day.
The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls data can swing a big stick in mortgage markets.
More commonly called “the jobs report“, Non-Farm Payrolls details the U.S. workforce, providing sector-by-sector analysis of workforce, as well as the national Unemployment Rate.
The jobs report affects mortgage rates because of how important jobs are to the U.S. economy.
When there are more working Americans:
- There’s more consumer spending, a boost to businesses
- There’s more tax collection, a boost to governments
- There’s more personal savings, a boost to households
In July, analysts anticipate 85,000 new jobs created. This would be a 4-fold increase from June’s 18,000 figure.
The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.2%.
For rate shoppers and home buyers in Texas , these Wall Street expectations can be as important as the actual data itself. Right now, traders placing bets, expecting 85,000 new jobs in July. If the final tally is more than 85,000, traders will load up on equities at the expense of bonds. This is because job growth is good for the economy.
When bonds sell off, rates rise.
Conversely, if jobs growth is less than 85,000, mortgage rates should drop.
Mortgage rates are near all-time lows this morning. By Friday, they could rise. The safe move is to lock your rate today. Rates may fall when the jobs report is released, but there’s much more room for rates to rise.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Retail Sales Rise For 12th Straight Month In June
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The American Consumer will not be deterred.
Despite worsening jobless figures and an increase in the Cost of Living, Retail Sales are climbing. In June, for the 12th straight month, retail receipts rose, excluding cars and auto parts.
Analysts expected no change from May. Instead, receipts topped $321 billion — an all-time record.
For home buyers and would-be refinancers in San Antonio , this is a bit of unwelcome news. Mortgage rates are rising in the wake of the Retail Sales data release.
This is because Retail Sales account for roughly half of consumer spending, and nearly one-third of the economy overall. A rise in Retail Sales, therefore, suggests stronger growth ahead.
Here’s how it happens.
As consumers spend more money, businesses sell more product. So, to accommodate burgeoning demand, business hire additional employees, and are forced to make additional capital expenditures as well.
This rise in spending prompts other businesses to hire and spend; to meet their own respective demand surges. There’s a chain reaction-like effect.
Then, with businesses carrying larger payrolls and bigger staffs, federal, state and local governments realize bigger tax bases and can fund new and existing projects.
This, too, leads to hiring and the cycle repeats.
A weak economic outlook dragged down mortgage rates last week. This week’s Retail Sales data reversed that flow. Mortgage rates are higher by 1/8 percent — roughly $8 per $100,000 borrowed.
Retail Sales are up 8 percent from a year ago.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.
