Homebuilder confidence is soaring.

For the fourth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports an increase in its Housing Market Index. The index climbed 4 points to 25 this month – its second four-point gain since October.

With home sales activity increasing across all four regions, the monthly HMI has now nearly doubled in value since June 2011.

The HMI is now at a 55-month high.

The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading; the result of three home builder surveys sent by the National Association of Homebuilders to its members monthly. Home builders report back on current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume for the next 6 months; and current buyer “foot traffic”.

The NAHB then results compiles the surveys into a single reading.

In January, home builders reported improving sales conditions across all three categories :

• Current Single-Family Sales : 25 (+3 from December)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 29 (+3 from December)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 21 (+3 from December)

The Housing Market Index corroborates recent U.S. government data that suggests housing is mending in Texas. Both Housing Starts and New Home Sales have out-performed expectations of late, it’s been shown, and the stock of new homes for sale nationwide is dwindling.

All of this, of course, is happening as demand from buyers heats up.  Foot traffic through builder homes is higher than it’s been in more than 3 years, say the builders — a time period that includes the duration of the 2010 home buyer tax credit.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that builders expect a strong 2012.

Jobs data is improving, mortgage rates remain low, and housing momentum is building. For home buyers in San Antonio , however, it may spell higher home prices ahead. Big demand and small supply creates scarcity and scarcity correlates to rising prices.

If you’re shopping new homes, the best “deal” may be the one you find today.

Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.

Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It’s the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.

The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It’s meant to measure confidence among the nation’s homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.

When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”.

In November, builder responses were stronger in all 3 categories :

• Current Single-Family Sales : 20 (+3 from October)
• Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (+1 from October)
• Buyer Foot Traffic : 15 (+1 from October)

And, beyond the headline data, there is an important, noteworthy item in this month’s Housing Market Index.

In November, “Current Single Family Sales” climbed 3 points for the second straight month, and is now at the highest point since May 2010 — the month after last year’s home buyer tax credit expired. And, this increase in sales volume is occurring as new home construction is falling, thereby reducing home inventory nationwide.

That’s an important point for San Antonio home buyers.

With more new home sales and fewer new home listings, prices are likely to increase into 2012. Especially with home builders predicting higher sales levels over the next 6 months, and seeing higher levels of buyer foot traffic through their properties today.

For now, though, home prices are stable and mortgage rates are low. This creates low-cost homeownership throughout Texas , and helps new home construction remain affordable.

If you’re in the market for new home construction, the next 60 days may prove to be your best time to get “a deal”.

Homebuilder confidence is bouncing back.

One month after an unceremonious dip highlighted by poor sales figures and dim prospects for the future, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index rebounded two points to 15 in July.

The monthly Housing Market Index is scored on a 1-100 scale. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions for homebuilders and the “new home” market. Readings below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.

The Housing Market Index has not read higher than 50 in more than 5 years.

As a housing metric, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, self-reported by builders. The surveys ask about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume; and current buyer foot traffic levels.

In July, the responses read as follows :

• Current single-family sales : 15 (+2 from June)
• Projected single-family sales : 22 (+7 from June)
• Buyer foot traffic : 12 (Unchanged from June)

The most noteworthy reading is the rapid rise in Projected single-family home sales. Although builders aren’t experiencing more foot traffic, they think sales will spike between now and the New Year.

That could spell bad news for San Antonio home buyers.

When builders harbor higher expectations for the future, they’re less willing to make concessions for upgrades and/or price. Your likelihood of getting “a great deal” as a buyer diminishes.

That’s why it’s good that mortgage rates are still so low. Low mortgage rates help with home affordability and can offset slight jumps in sale price.

Mortgage rates remain just above their lowest levels of 2011, and of all-time.

Homebuilder confidence is falling — a good sign for buyers of newly-built homes.

According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the Housing Market Index slipped one point to 16 in April. It’s the 5th time in 6 months that the index read 16 — a figure exactly in line with the 1-year average, but still considered “poor”. The Housing Market Index reports on a scale of 1-100.

Values of 50 or better representing “favorable conditions”. Values below 50 are considered “unfavorable”.

It’s been 5 years since the Housing Market Index read north of 50.

As an index, the HMI is actually a composite of three separate surveys, the results of which can be as telling as the final, compiled results. The surveys focus on specific aspects about a homebuilder’s business, and use the broader responses to gauge overall market “sentiment”.

The 3 questions are:

1. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
2. How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
3. How is prospective buyer foot traffic?

In April, interestingly, home builders felt market conditions were worse across the board, but still cited higher buyer foot traffic. This may be the result of a combination of rising mortgage rates and falling home values. Both tend to be bad for builders, and both tend to spur home buyers into action.

As a home buyer this spring, therefore, use the HMI data to your advantage. When home builders feel less confident on housing, buyers can often exact better concessions and/or upgrades during the negotiation process.

And, so long as mortgage rates continue to rise, that pressure on builders should build.