Archive for Home Price Index
Home Values Start The Year Strong
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Home prices started the year on an upswing.
According to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home prices rose by a seasonally-adjusted 0.3 percent between January and February 2012. The index is up 0.4% over the past year, offering a counter-story to the Case-Shiller Index’s assertion that home values are sinking.
Last week, Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index said home values had dropped more than 3 percent in the prior 12 months.
As a home buyer or seller in San Antonio , data showing “rising home values” or “falling home values” may be of interest to you, but we can’t forget that most home valuation trackers — including both the government’s Home Price Index and the private sector Case-Shiller Index — have a severe, built-in flaw.
Both used “aged” data. Today, the calendar reads May. Yet, we’re still discussing February’s housing data.
Data that is two-plus months old is of little value to everyday buyers and sellers wanting to know the “right now” of housing. And, even then, characterizing the data as “two-plus months old” may be a stretch. This is because the home values used in the Home Price index and the Case-Shiller Index are collected from actual transactions, but at the time of closing.
Considering that most purchases require 45-60 days to close, we can know that when we look at the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller Index reports for February, what we’re really seeing is a snapshot of the housing market as it existed two-plus month plus 60 days ago.
Data that’s 5 months old is of little relevance to today’s buyers and sellers. Today’s market is driven by today’s economics.
The Home Price Index is a useful gauge for economists and law-makers. It highlights long-term trends in housing which can be helpful in allocating resources to a particular project or policy. For home buyers and seller throughout Texas , though, it’s much less useful. Real-time data is what matters to you.
For that, talk to a real estate professional.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Nationally, Home Prices Off 18.3 Percent From April 2007 Peak
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The government confirms what the private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported yesterday. Nationwide, average home values slipped in October.
The Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index shows home values down 0.2% on a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis. October marks just the second time since April that home values fell month-over-month.
The Case-Shiller Index 20-City Composite showed values down 0.7 percent from September to October.
As a home buyer in San Antonio , it’s easy to look at these numbers and think housing markets are down. Ultimately, that may prove true. However, before we take the FHFA’s October Home Price Index at face value, we have to consider the report’s flaws.
There are three of them — and they’re glaring. As we address them, it becomes clear that the Home Price Index — like the Case-Shiller Index — is of little use to everyday buyers and sellers.
First, the FHFA Home Price Index only tracks home values for homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages. This means that homes backed by the FHA, for example, are specifically not computed in the monthly Home Price Index.
In 2007, this was not as big of an issue as it is today. in 2007, the FHA insured just 4 percent of the housing market. Today, the FHA is estimated to have more than one-third of the overall housing market.
This means that one-third of all home sales are excluded from the HPI — a huge exclusion.
Second, the FHFA Home Price Index excludes new home sales and cash purchases, accounting for home resales backed by mortgages only. New home sales is a growing part of the market, and cash sales topped 29 percent in October 2011.
Third, the Home Price Index is on a 60-day delay. The above report is for homes that closed in October. It’s nearly January now. Market momentum is different now. Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales have been rising; homebuilder confidence is up; Housing Starts are showing strength. In addition, the Pending Home Sales Index points to a strong year-end.
The Home Price Index doesn’t capture this news. It’s reporting on expired market conditions instead.
For local, up-to-the-minute housing market data, skip past the national data. You’ll get better, more relevant facts from a local real estate agent.
Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA’s Home Price Index is off 18.3 percent.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Values Rose For the 4th Straight Month
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The government is confirming what the private sector has already shown — home values are on the rise.
The Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index shows home values rose 0.8% in July.
July marks the fourth straight month that home values climbed and the FHFA’s Home Price Index is the latest in a series of “rising home values” reports — an encouraging trend for buyers and sellers in San Antonio and nationwide.
Last week, the S&P Case-Shiller Index showed home value up nearly 1 percent in July. CoreLogic reached a similar conclusion.
Nationwide, values are back to their highest levels since November 2010. Clearly, the housing market in Texas is moving in the right direction. Or is it?
Although the data from the government and from private firms such as CoreLogic is encouraging, it’s also flawed. As such, we have to be careful about the conclusions we draw from the data.
The flaws of Home Price Index are glaring :
- Only homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are included in the index. In today’s market, because of the FHA’s popularity, that leaves 1 of 3 homes “uncounted”.
- Only home resales are counted. New home sales are omitted entirely.
- The data comes with a 60-day delay. The October market is different from July’s.
Despite these shortcomings, however, the Home Price Index remains relevant. It’s among the most through home valuation models and it’s often used by economists and policy-makers.
When the Home Price Index is rising, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice. For residents of “Main Street”, however, the data may not be as important. To get local, up-to-date market statistics , talk with a professional real estate agent.
Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA’s Home Price Index is off 17.6 percent.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Prices Rise For The 2nd Straight Month
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A strong spring season helped home values recover, says the government.
According to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent from April to May.
It’s the HPI’s second straight increase, and puts the monthly index at its highest point since January 2011.
As a home seller in San Antonio , you may appreciate news such as “rising home prices”, but it’s important to remember that the Home Price Index has a several built-in flaws — the biggest of which its age.
Today, the calendar nearly reads August, yet, we’re still discussing May’s housing data. A 2-month delay does little to help buyers and sellers wanting to know the “right now” of housing.
Unfortunately, the Home Price Index data is even more aged than that.
Because the FHFA’s Home Price Index measures home prices as recorded at closing, the actual sales prices included in the index are from real estate contracts written 30-60 days prior.
In other words, when we look at the Home Price Index report for May, what we’re really seeing is a snapshot of the housing market as it existed in March. March’s housing market has little to do with the forces driving home prices today.
Today’s real estate market is driven by today’s economics.
The Home Price Index is a useful gauge for economists and law-makers; it shows long-term national trends in the housing market which can be used to allocate resources to a project, or to form new policy. For home buyers across the state of Texas , though, it’s less helpful.
For today’s real estate buyers and sellers, there’s no substitute for real-time data. For that, talk to a real estate professional.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Values Climb 0.8 Percent In April
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Maybe homes in San Antonio are holding value better than we thought.
Between March and April of this year, home values rose 0.8 percent nationally, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index. It’s the index’s first month-to-month improvement since May of last year.
Values are down 19 percent since peaking 4 years ago.
Private-sector data affirms the government’s report.
Tuesday, the S&P’s Case-Shiller Index also showed home values higher by 0.8 percent in April, on a monthly basis. Led by Washington, D.C. and San Francisco, 13 of the Case-Shiller’s 20 tracked markets showed improvement in April.
In March, just 2 markets did.
As a home seller , it’s nice to see reports of rising home prices after multiple months of “bad news”. However, the data may not be as rosy as it appears to be. National real estate surveys including the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index are flawed for everyday buyers and sellers.
The biggest flaw is “age”. Both the Home Price Index and the Case-Shiller Index report on a near 2-month delay.
This week, the calendar turns to July. Yet, we’re still discussing housing news from April. The housing market of 60 days ago was very different from the housing market of today. Mortgage rates are different, market drivers are different, and the pool of buyers is likely different, too.
We can’t discuss today’s housing market with “April” in mind. The data is irrelevant.
Another flaw is that both reports are national in scope. Real estate, by contrast, is local.
When we cite the Home Price Index or the Case-Shiller Index, for example, and say “home values rose 0.8% in April”, we’re just giving a national average. On the local level, some markets rose by more, some rose by less, and others actually fell.
People buy homes on a specific block of a specific street in a specific neighborhood. Data for homes like that can’t be captured in a national survey.
The group that gets the most value from the Home Price Index and Case-Shiller is Wall Street and policy-makers. The indices do a fair job of reporting how housing behaves as a whole, but for individuals concerned with buying and selling homes, the best place to find real-time, accurate data is from a real estate professional.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Case-Shiller Shows Home Values Rolling Back 9 Years
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The March Case-Shiller Index was released this week and it corroborates the findings of the government’s most recent Home Price Index — home values are slipping nationwide.
According to the Case-Shiller Index’s publisher, Standard & Poors, home values fell in March from the year prior.
The March report was among the worst Case-Shiller Index readings in 3 years. On a monthly basis, 18 of 20 tracked markets worsened. Only Seattle and Washington, D.C. showed improvement, rising 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.
On an annual basis, price degradation was even worse.
Washington, D.C. is the only tracked market to post higher home values for March 2011 as compared to March 2010. The national index has now dropped to mid-2002 levels.
As a buyer in today’s market, though, you can’t take the Case-Shiller Index at face value. It’s methodology is far too flawed to be the “final word” in home prices.
The first big Case-Shiller Index flaw is its relatively small sample size. S&P positions the Case-Shiller Index as a national index but its data comes from just 20 cities total. And they’re not the 20 most populous cities, either. Notably missing from the Case-Shiller Index list are Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5), San Antonio (#7) and San Jose (#10).
Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55) are included, by contrast.
A second Case-Shiller flaw is how it measures a change in home price. Because the index throws out all sales except for “repeat sales” of the same home, the Case-Shiller Index fails to capture the “complete” U.S. market. It also specifically excludes condominiums and multi-family homes.
In some cities — such as Chicago — homes of these types can represent a large percentage of the market.
And, lastly, a third Case-Shiller Index flaw is that it’s on a 2-month delay. It’s June and we’re only now getting home data from March. Today’s market is similar — but not the same — to what buyers and sellers faced in March. The Case-Shiller Index is far less useful than real-time data of a city or neighborhood.
The Case-Shiller Index is more useful to economists and policy-makers than to everyday buyers and sellers in San Antonio. For better real estate data for your particular neighborhood, ask your real estate agent for help.
A real estate agent can tell you which homes have sold in the last 7 days, and at what prices. The Case-Shiller Index cannot.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Price Index Shows Values Down 19 Percent From Peak
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Home values dropped for the sixth straight month in March 2011, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index. The Home Price Index is a government-sponsored home value tracker.
The HPI report is the latest in a string of “falling home values” stories — a trend that’s troubling home sellers across San Antonio and nationwide.
However, although the Home Price Index says home values are falling, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are. Like most statistics in the housing sector, the Home Price Index is plagued by poor methodologies and a lack of timeliness.
In short, the Home Price Index is flawed. In three ways.
The first big flaw in the Home Price Index is that it only measures the values of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Homes financed via FHA, or via other means are specifically excluded from the calculation. For today’s purchase market, that leaves more than 1 in 4 homes “uncounted” — a big percentage of the market.
Second, the Home Price Index determines home values by measuring price change from sale to subsequent sale. This eliminates new homes — a major market segment.
And, lastly, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay; we’re only now seeing data from March. This two-month lag renders the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for market insight, the HPI can’t give it — it’s out-dated and out of season.
Despite its shortcomings, though, we can’t ignore the Home Price Index completely. It’s among the most thorough home valuation models available, and it’s used in public policy discussions. When the HPI says prices are down, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice, and that trickles down to everyday life on Main Street.
Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 19.1 percent.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Foreclosures And Short Sales Distorting “Home Price Trackers”
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In an echo of February’s Case-Shiller Index report, the government’s own home price-tracker — the Home Price Index — showed home values slipping between January and February 2011.
The Federal Home Finance Agency data had home values down 1.6 percent nationwide in February, on average, marking the fourth straight month in which prices fell.
Furthermore, all 9 regions posted losses from the month prior:
- Mountain Region : -3.7% from January
- East South Central : -0.6% from January
- South Atlantic : -0.9% from January
- New England : -2.0% from January
Before you draw conclusions, however, note that the data at which we’re looking has several major flaws to it.
First, it’s old. We’re now in the first week of May and the FHFA’s most recent release only covers through February, a time period ending roughly 60 days ago. That’s a long delay and today’s purchase market in San Antonio looks much different from the one of February.
Just ask a real estate agent and they’ll tell you — purchase activity is rising.
Second, the FHFA Home Price Index reports on home value changes between consecutive Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac-securitized transactions only. This might be creating an overweight of “distressed properties” in the index which, in turn, drags down valuations.
Distressed homes account for 40% of all home resales and typically sell at 20 percent discounts.
And, lastly, although the Home Price Index is a national report, real estate as a market is decidedly not national. To the contrary, it’s extremely local. As an individual, you don’t buy, sell or own homes in all 50 states. You buy them in a specific state, and a specific neighborhood.
The national data is useless to you in that respect.
We can’t discount the Home Price Index data entirely, but should remember that it paints a clearer picture of where housing has been versus where housing is going. As a home buyer or homeowner, it’s the future of home values that matters more.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Values Up 0.4 Percent In August, On Average
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Consistent with the most recent Case-Shiller Index, the government’s Home Price Index said home prices rose between July and August.
The Federal Home Finance Agency’s data showed values up 0.4 percent nationwide, on average. Region-by-region, however, the results were scattered. Coastal states tended to perform poorly. Plains states tended to perform well.
A brief look at the regional disparity:
- West South Central : +1.5%
- East North Central : +1.2%
- Pacific : -0.2%
- South Atlantic : -0.2%
Breakdowns like this are important because they highlight the fundamental problem with national real estate data and that’s that home buyers in San Antonio don’t buy real estate in a national market, or even a regional one.
Buyers buy local.
When we look at national figures like the Home Price Index, it’s important to remember that real estate is a collection of tiny markets which, when lumped together, form small markets which, in turn, lump together into larger markets and so forth.
To illustrate this point, a deeper look at August’s Home Price Index data shows that, within the aforementioned Pacific Region, in which home values fell 0.2%, the state of California posted a 2.9% increase. You can be sure that within the state of California, there are cities that performed better than the 2.9 percent, and within those cities, there are neighborhoods that did the same.
Real estate is most definitely local.
That said, we can’t discount the national report entirely. Broader housing statistics like the Home Price Index reflect on the economy and are often used to help shape policy in the nation’s capital. When you need to know what’s happening in your hometown, though, your best source of data is a knowledgeable real estate professional.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Which Model Is More Accurate : The Case-Shiller Index Or The Home Price Index?
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The private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 5 percent nationwide in June. The government’s own Home Price Index, however, reached a different conclusion.
According to the Federal Home Finance Agency, month-to-month home values fell 0.3 percent in June, and values are down by 1.7 percent from June 2009.
So, as a home buyer and/or homeowner in San Antonio , by which valuation model should you make your bets? Perhaps neither.
This is because both the Case-Shiller Index and the Home Price have inherent methodology flaws, the most glaring of which is their respective sample sets.
The Case-Shiller sample set, for example, comes from just 20 cities across the country — and they’re not even the 20 most populated cities. Together, the Case-Shiller cities represent just 9 percent of the overall U.S. population.
That’s hardly representative of the housing stock overall.
By comparison, the Home Price Index tracks home sales everywhere — every city in every state — but it specifically excludes certain properties. The Home Price Index does not track sales of homes for which the financing comes from agencies other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means that as FHA loans grow in popularity, the pool of Home Price Index-eligible homes is reducing.
The HPI ignores homes backed by “jumbo” loans, too.
Therefore, the “right” model for home values cannot come from national data at all — it can only come locally. Neither Case-Shiller nor the government has the tools to get as granular as a neighborhood. A real estate agent in the area does, however.
The best way to get a pulse for what’s happening in markets right now is to talk to somebody with good data.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.
