Archive for Home Affordability
Make A Mortgage Rate Plan Ahead Of The Jobs Report
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Been shopping for a mortgage rate? You may want to lock something down. Tomorrow morning, mortgage rates are expected to change. Unfortunately, we don’t know in which direction they’ll move.
It’s a risky time for Texas home buyers to be without a locked mortgage rate.
The action begins at 8:30 A.M. ET Friday. This is when the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its April Non-Farm Payrolls report.
The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report is more commonly known as “the jobs report” and provides a sector-by-sector breakdown of the U.S. employment situation, including changes in the Unemployment Rate.
In March 2012, the government reported 120,000 net new jobs created — half the number created during the month prior, and the third straight month of declining job creation. The Unemployment Rate fell one-tenth of one percent to 8.2%.
For April, economists expect to see 160,000 net new jobs created, and no change in the national Unemployment Rate.
Based on the accuracy of those predictions, mortgage rates in San Antonio are subject to change. If the actual number of jobs created in April exceeds economist expectations, mortgage rates should rise. Conversely, if the actual number of jobs created falls short, mortgage rates should drop.
Job growth’s link to mortgage rates is straight-forward. Jobs are an economic growth engine and mortgage rates are based economic expectation. Therefore, as the number of people entering the U.S. workforce increases, so do Wall Street’s growth projections for the economy. When that happens — especially in a recovering economy such as this one – mortgage rates tend to rise.
So, for today’s rate shoppers, Friday’s job report represents a risk. The economy has created jobs for 18 straight months, a winning streak that has added 2.9 million people to the U.S. workforce. If that winning streak continues and expectations are beat, mortgage rates are likely to rise off their all-time lows, harming home affordability.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 4%
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After a brief run-up two weeks ago, mortgage rates are back below 4 percent. It’s good news for home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers of San Antonio because with lower mortgage rates come lower mortgage payments.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national, average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.99 percent this week from last week’s 4.08 percent.
Last week had marked the first time since December 2011 that the benchmark rate crossed north of 4 percent — a span of 16 weeks.
And, it wasn’t just rates that got cheaper this week — closing costs dropped, too.
Freddie Mac’s survey showed that the average number of discount points to accompany a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell one-tenth of a percent this week to 0.7, where one discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size.
As a real-life example, a $200,000 mortgage with an accompanying 0.7 discount points would be subject to an additional $1,400 one-time closing cost. Last week, that cost was $1,600.
Note, though, that these are average mortgage rates for the nation. On a local level, rates may be higher or lower, and so may the accompanying number of discount points.
For example, in this week’s Freddie Mac survey, each U.S. region boasts its own “average rate” :
- Northeast Region : 4.00% with 0.7 discount points
- West Region : 3.94% with 0.9 discount points
- Southeast Region : 4.01% with 0.8 discount points
- North Central Region : 3.99% with 0.6 discount points
- Southwest Region : 4.02% with 0.8 discount points
These rates are each well below the average rates of a year ago when the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.86%.
Low mortgage rates can’t last forever so if you’ve been wondering whether now is a good time to buy a home or refinance one; or whether rising rates will harm your monthly budget, the answer may be yes. A weak economy held mortgage rates low last year. An improving economy should push rates higher this year.
Talk to your loan officer and review your home loan options. Looking ahead to spring and summer, mortgage rates appear poised to rise.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Mortgage Rates Climb Sharply After Retail Sales Report
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The U.S. economy is expanding, fueled by a renewed consumer optimism and increased consumer spending.
As reported by the Census Bureau, Retail Sales in February, excluding cars and auto parts, rose 1 percent to $335 billion as 11 of 13 retail sectors showed improvement last month.
February markets the 19th time in twenty months that U.S. Retail Sales increased on a month-over-month basis.
Unfortunately, what’s good for the economy may be bad for San Antonio home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers. Home affordability is expected to worsen as the U.S. economy improves.
The connection between Retail Sales and home affordability is indirect, but noteworthy — especially given today’s broader market conditions.
First, let’s talk about affordability.
Last week, the National Association of REALTORS® released its monthly Housing Affordability Index, showing that homes are more affordable to everyday home buyers than at any time in recorded history. For buyers with median earnings buying median-priced homes, monthly payments now comprise just 12.1% of the monthly household income.
The real estate trade group considers 25% to be the benchmark for home affordability. Today’s payment levels are less than half of that.
The reasons why today’s homes are so affordable are three-fold :
- Home prices remain relatively low as compared to peak pricing
- Fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgage rates remain near all-time lows
- Average earnings are increasing nationwide
Rising Retail Sales, however, can derail the trend. This is because Retail Sales measures consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy. As the economy expands, the forces that combined to raise home affordability so high begin to wane.
First, in a recovering economy, mortgage rates tend to rise and, throughout 2012 and 2013, home prices are expected do the same. Second, as average earnings increase, it can spur inflation which is bad for mortgage rates, too.
Home affordability is at all-time highs today. But, in part because of February’s Retail Sales data, we should not expect these levels to last. Mortgage rates are higher by 1/4 percent since the Retail Sales data was released — roughly $16 per $100,000 borrowed — and are expected to rise more throughout the spring home purchase season.
Retail Sales are up 6 percent from a year ago.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Affordability Reaches An All-Time High
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Home affordability moved higher last quarter, boosted by the lowest mortgage rates in history, a rise in median income, and slow-to-recover home prices throughout Texas and the country.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, the quarterly Home Opportunity Index read 75.9 in 2011′s fourth quarter. More than 3 in 4 homes sold between October-December 2011, in other words, were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.
Never in recorded history have U.S. homes been as affordable on a national level. Even on a regional and local level, affordability soared.
Affordability was highest in the Midwest; 7 of the 10 most affordable markets nationwide were in the nation’s heartland.
The Top 5 most affordable U.S. cities in Q4 2011 were:
- Kokomo, IN (99.2% home affordability)
- Fairbanks, AK (97.5% home affordability)
- Cumberland, WV (96.9% home affordability)
- Lima, OH (96.0% home affordability)
- Rockford, IL (95.5% home affordability)
These are each considered “small markets”. The most affordable “major market” was the Youngstown, Ohio area, where 95.1% of homes sold were affordable to households earning the area’s local median income.
Not surprisingly, America’s “least affordable cities” were regionally-concentrated, too, with 7 of the 10 least affordable markets located in either California or Texas.
San Francisco (#3), Santa Ana (#4), and Los Angeles (#5) led for the Golden State but, for the 15th consecutive quarter, the New York metropolitan area took “Least Affordable Market” honors.
Just 29 percent of homes in and around New York City were affordable to households earning the area’s median income last quarter. It’s a large jump from the quarter prior during which 23 percent of homes were affordable.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.With Retail Sales And Consumer Confidence Rising, Home Prices Are Expected To Follow
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The U.S. economy continues to show signs of a rebound.
According to the Census Bureau, Retail Sales climbed to $329 billion last month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, excluding automobiles. January’s data marks the 18th time in 19 months that Retail Sales rose, a run that’s increased total sales receipts by 11 percent.
This is big news because Retail Sales accounts for close to 70% of the U.S. economy.
In addition, consumer confidence is rising.
In a separate, joint report from the University of Michigan and Thompson Reuters, it was shown that consumer attitudes toward the economy and the future are improving, primarily the result of recent job gains.
The Survey of Consumers posted its highest value in 12 months.
It is not a coincidence that Retail Sales and consumer confidence both made multi-month highs — the readings are more than loosely linked. As consumers feel more confident about the economy and their personal prospects for the future, they’re more likely to spend money on goods and services, which leads to an increase in consumer spending.
For the housing market, the ramifications are two-fold.
First, from the financing side, an expanding economy is linked to rising mortgage rates. This is because Wall Street tends to chase risk in a growth economy and the bond market offers little in the way of risk. As demand for bonds drops, then, mortgage rates rise throughout Texas.
Second, rising consumer confidence can lead San Antonio home values higher, too.
Confident consumers are more likely than fearful ones to become home buyers. They’re more likely to stop renting and start buying; more likely to list their home and “move-up” to something bigger; more likely to “take the next step”.
So, as more buyers enter the market at a time when the national home supply is shrinking, the supply-demand balance in housing is shifting toward the sellers. This creates price pressures and should lead to higher home valuations.
If you have plans to buy a home in 2012, the best time to buy may be now. Today’s mortgage rates are low and so are the home prices — a combination that’s unlikely to last.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Affordability Still Tops Nationwide
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Home affordability slipped slightly last quarter, dragged down by rising mortgage rates and recovering home prices in Texas and nationwide.
The National Association of Home Builders reports a Q2 2011 Home Opportunity Index reading of 72.6. This means that nearly 3 of 4 homes sold last quarter were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.
Q2 2011 marks the 10th straight quarter — dating back to 2009 — in which the index surpassed 70.
Prior to 2009, the index had never crossed 70 even one time.
However, we must remember that the Home Affordability Index is a national survey. From region-to-region, and town-to-town, home affordability varied.
In the Midwest, for example, affordability was highest. 14 of the 15 most affordable markets nationwide were spread throughout Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Indiana. Only Syracuse (#9) cracked the list from other regions.
The top 5 most affordable cities in Q2 2011 were:
- Kokomo, IN (95.8%)
- Wheeling, WV (94.7%)
- Lansing, MI; East Lansing, MI (94.4%)
- Bay City, MI (94.3%)
- Youngstown, OH; Warren, OH; Boardman, OH (93.7%)
By contrast, the Northeast Region and Southern California ranked as the least affordable markets. Led by the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area, 7 of the 10 least affordable areas were in New York, New Jersey, and California. For the 13th consecutive quarter the New York metro area was ranked “Least Affordable”.
Just 25.2 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income there.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Affordability Still Soaring; New Records Reached
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Home affordability moved higher last quarter, buoyed by stable mortgage rates and falling home prices in Texas and nationwide. The National Association of Home Builders reports that Q1 2011 Home Opportunity Index reached an all-time high for the second straight quarter last quarter.
Nearly 3 of 4 homes sold between January-March 2011 were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,400. It’s the 9th straight quarter in which home affordability surpassed 70 percent, and the highest reading in more than 20 years of record-keeping.
From metropolitan area-to-metropolitan area, though, affordability varied.
In the Midwest, for example, affordability was high. 7 of the 10 most affordable markets were in the Midwest, including Kokomo, Indiana, in which 98.6% of homes were affordable to median income-earning families. Indianapolis, Indiana placed second for “big city” affordability.
The most affordable “big city” last quarter was Syracuse, New York. With a 94.5% affordability rate, Syracuse ranks 8th nationally in the Home Opportunity Index. It’s the second time that Syracuse placed first in the last 4 quarters.
Meanwhile, on the opposite end of home affordability, the “Least Affordable Major City” title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 12th consecutive quarter. Just 24.1 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income, down more than 1 percent from the last reading.
Regardless of where you live, remember that rising mortgage rates can levy more pain on your household budget than can rising home values. And mortgage rates are expected to rise long before home prices do.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available for download on the NAHB website.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Homebuilders Expect More Sales Volume This Year
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Homebuilders are optimistic about the housing market this spring, relative to recent months.
According to the monthly Housing Market Index as published by the National Association of Homebuilders, after 4 straight months of reading 16, March homebuilder confidence ticked 1 point higher to 17.
It’s the highest confidence reading in 10 months.
A value of 50 or better indicates “favorable conditions” for home builders; with more builders viewing sales conditions as “good” than “poor”.
HMI hasn’t read higher than 50 since April 2006.
Regionally, the Housing Market Index showed mixed results. Confidence fell 1 point in the Northeast, held firm in the Midwest, and rose in the Southeast and West regions by 2 points and 4 points, respectively.
As an index, the monthly survey is actually a composite of three separate homebuilder surveys — a report on single-family sales; a report on current buyer foot traffic; and a projection for single family sales in the next 6 months.
March’s HMI breakdown shows that builders expect sales to be brisk over the next few months. Projected Single-Family Sales is running at its highest level since May 2010 — right as the $8,000 federal homebuyer tax credit was ending.
- Single-Family Sales : 17 (Unchanged from February)
- Buyer Foot Traffic : 12 (Unchanged from January)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 27 (+2 from February)
For home buyers in Chicago and across the country , the March Housing Market Index may signal the end of “builder discounts” and free upgrades. As home sales increase, builders are often less likely to make concessions.
In conjuction with rising mortgage rates and new, mandatory loan costs, buying a newly-built home may never be as inexpensive as it is right now.
If you expect to buy a newly-built home this year, consider moving up your time frame. The longer you wait, the more it may cost you.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Home Affordability Peaked Last Quarter; Purchasing Power Sinks 10%
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Home affordability reached an all-time high in 2010′s last quarter. Unfortunately for home buyers in Texas , it’s been a different story since, however.
As mortgage rates cratered, and with home values soft, the Home Opportunity Index reached its highest level in 20 years. The index is published by the National Association of Home Builders.
Close to 74 percent of the new and existing homes sold between October-December 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. It’s the 8th straight quarter in which the Home Affordability Index surpassed 70 percent.
Prior to 2009, the HOI rarely topped 65 percent.
That said, though, as with everything in real estate, home affordability is a local event. For example, take the Elkhart/Goshen area of northern Indiana. 97 percent of homes sold there last quarter were affordable to families making the area’s median income.
This level of affordability is likely related to state capital Indianapolis, a perennial top-scorer itself.
For the second straight quarter — and the 22nd time dating back to 2006 — Indianapolis led all major metropolitan areas with a 93.5 affordability rating.
Meanwhile, on the opposite end of the home affordability spectrum, the “Least Affordable Major City” title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 11th consecutive quarter. Just 25.5 percent of homes were affordable to households earning the area median income.
It’s a a 6-point improvement from Q2 2010, however.
The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, it’s important to remember that rising mortgage rates this year have made homes less affordable in all markets across the United States. We won’t see a repeat record in this quarter’s HOI once it’s calculated and published.
Home buyers in San Antonio have lost 10% of their purchasing power since November, and mortgage rates look poised to rise even more.
If your plans call for buying a home later this year, consider moving up your time frame. The long-term costs of homeownership are rising, and affordability, therefore, is falling.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.Mortgage Rates Return To April 2010 Levels
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Mortgage rates are surging.
Over the last 7 days, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have jumped 24 basis points, or 0.24%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
It’s the largest 1-week spike in mortgage rates in recent history.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage now averages 5.05% nationally. This is much, much higher than what we saw last November when mortgage rates were 4.17% and looked headed to the 3s.
That’s not the case today. In fact, it’s the opposite.
Mortgage rates have risen quickly and fiercely this year. As of this morning, mortgage rates are higher over 9 consecutive days, marking the longest mortgage rate losing streak in the last 6 years, at least.
Note, however, that when you call your loan officer or bank, you may not be quoted the same 5.05% rate as shown by Freddie Mac. This is because Freddie Mac-reported rates are national averages. Any given mortgage rate may be higher or lower depending on its region.
As an illustration, look how this week’s rates breaks down by area:
- Northeast : 5.07 with 0.7 points
- Southeast : 4.99 with 0.9 points
- North Central : 5.09 with 0.6 points
- Southeast : 5.06 with 0.6 points
- West : 5.02 with 0.8 points
In other words, the rate-and-fee combination you’d be offered in your home town of San Antonio is different from what you’d be offered if you lived somewhere else. In the Southeast, rates tend to be low and fees tend to be high; in the North Central U.S., it’s the opposite.
The good news is that, as a mortgage applicant, you can have your pricing whichever way you prefer. If getting the absolute lowest mortgage rate is what’s most important to you, have your loan officer structure your loan as in the “Southeast Style”. Or, if you prefer to have as few closing costs as possible and don’t mind slightly higher rates, ask for that type of set-up instead.
Either way, consider locking your rate as soon as possible. If rates keep rising, it won’t be long before they touch 6 percent.
Brought to you by Alan McNamee and San Antonio Mortgage Site 210-479-8935.
